Korn Ferry’s Salary Surge study estimates the impact of the global talent shortage, identified in Korn Ferry’s recent Global Talent Crunch study, on payrolls in 20 major global economies at three milestones: 2020, 2025 and 2030, and across three sectors: financial and business services; technology, media and telecommunications (TMT); and manufacturing.

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-- India is the only country to buck the trend, as it will have a highly skilled talent surplus till 2030

-- Study Shows that by 2030, a Deficit of In-Demand Employees Could Cost Asia Pacific Companies Billions of Dollars

-- By 2030 Average Pay Premium for Skilled Workers in Asia Pacific Could Be More Than $14,500 Per Worker Per Year

Salaries for highly skilled workers could boom as talent shortages take hold across Asia Pacific, according to a new study* by Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY). Left unchecked, the salary surge could add more than $1 trillion to annual payrolls in the region by 2030, jeopardizing companies’ profitability and threatening business models.

“The new era of work is one of scarcity in abundance: there are plenty of people, but not enough with the skills their organizations will need to survive,” said Dhritiman Chakrabarti, Korn Ferry Head of Rewards and Benefits for the APAC region. “While overall wage increases are just keeping pace with inflation, salaries for in-demand workers will skyrocket if companies choose to compete for the best and brightest on salary alone.”

Korn Ferry’s Salary Surge  study estimates the impact of the global talent shortage, identified in Korn Ferry’s recent Global Talent Crunch study, on payrolls in 20 major global economies at three milestones: 2020, 2025 and 2030, and across three sectors: financial and business services; technology, media and telecommunications (TMT); and manufacturing. It measures how much more organizations could be forced to pay workers, above normal inflation increases.

The study reveals the huge impact the salary surge could have on countries across the region:

▪ Japanese companies can expect to pay the most: Japan is predicted to pay approximately an additional $468 billion by 2030.

▪ However, smaller markets with limited workforces are likely to feel the most pressure. By 2030, Singapore and Hong Kong could expect salary premiums equivalent to more than 10 percent of their 2017 GDP**.

▪ By 2030, China could see an additional wage bill of more than $342 billion.

▪ India is the only economy that can expect to avoid upward spiralling wages, as unlike any other country in the study it will have a highly skilled talent surplus at each milestone.

▪ By 2030, the average pay premium (what employers could have to pay over and above the amount that salaries would rise over time due to normal inflation) across the region per worker is $14,710 per year. However, Hong Kong could face a staggering $40,539 per year per highly skilled worker; Singapore could expect to pay an extra $29,065; and Australia $28,625 more by 2030.

▪ At a sector level, manufacturing, a critical driver of growth for emerging economies, may be stalled by the huge impact of the salary surge. In China the highly skilled worker shortage is expected to exceed one million workers by 2030, meaning that the wage premium could reach nearly $51 billion by the same date - higher than any other country analysed.

Globally the talent crunch could add $2.5 trillion to company payrolls annually, revealing the huge impact the salary surge could have at a country level:

▪ U.S. companies can expect to pay the most globally: facing a wage premium of more than $531 billion by 2030.

▪ Germany is the worst affected in EMEA, facing a potential wage premium of approximately $176 billion by 2030.

▪ While the U.K. and France can expect a better short-term outlook, by 2030 the U.K.’s wage premium may be equivalent to 5 percent of its 2017 GDP and France’s may reach 4 percent of its 2017 GDP.

▪ The average pay premium per worker across the 20 economies is $11,164 per year.

“Buying in talent from the market is unsustainable. Instead, companies across Asia Pacific must focus on engaging and re-skilling their current workers,” said Chakrabarti. “With existing highly skilled workers, leaders must focus on what really drives retention. We know that employees who have the opportunity for career development, benefit from inspiring leadership and feel their work has purpose are more likely to stay at an organization, and – crucially – will be more engaged and productive.”

“In tomorrow’s world of work, the employees who will succeed won’t necessarily be the people with the highest level of academic achievement,” said Chakrabarti. “Instead, they will be the ones who are adaptable and willing to learn, with enough flexibility to handle rapidly shifting working environments and less hierarchical structures. Companies need to identify the talent of tomorrow and help them achieve their potential.”

GDP figures based on 2017 IMF estimates

About The Salary Surge Study

Following the Korn Ferry Global Talent Crunch study, which modeled the gap between future labor supply and demand to estimate the impending skilled talent shortage, The Salary Surge study estimates the impact of this shortage on payrolls in 20 major global economies.

The study assesses wage increases by mapping Korn Ferry’s proprietary global pay data against the skilled labor shortage revealed in The Global Talent Crunch to estimate its impact at three future milestones: 2020, 2025, and 2030. The model focuses on three knowledge-intensive sectors within each market that act as critical drivers of global economic growth: financial and business services; technology, media and telecommunications (TMT); and manufacturing, and also examines the remainder of each economy outside of these core industries. The report focuses on highly skilled labor, which is where the most acute shortages are found. The model uses educational attainment as a commonly accepted proxy for skills.

The 20 markets covered span the Americas (Brazil, Mexico, the U.S.), EMEA (France, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, U.A.E., U.K.) and Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand).